The spring flood outlook shows below normal risk for the area. According to Meteorologist TJ Gunkel with the National Weather Service, the spring flood risk is below normal for the Mississippi River and near to below normal for tributary rivers in the area.

He explains what modeling is showing for the KCII-listening area, “The Skunk River, along with the English River, specifically looking in Sigourney and then down in Kalona, they do have around a 50% chance there for minor flooding. But otherwise if we go east towards the Mississippi River, we are looking at actually less than a 50% chance for any flooding right now. We’re generally looking up to about a 25-30% chance to reach minor or moderate flooding this spring, but the snow has been quite deceiving. Some saw upwards to maybe 10 inches throughout our forecast area and while that seems like a lot of snow, fortunately there’s not a lot of water in that snow.”

He says one of the main drivers for the outlook is that snowfall locally this winter has been below normal and the current frozen soils don’t adequately absorb moisture that is received until thaw occurs. In addition, Iowa is still experiencing drought conditions.

Gunkel advises that just one storm can change the outlook, “One of the main things is even though we do have a below normal flood threat right now, I have been emphasizing that all it does take is one storm. I think we saw that last winter when we were forecasting below normal flood season and then we get the one big storm that will bring a lot of heavy snow and that can lead to flooding. So, don’t get too comfortable, but right now it’s looking good and as long as we stay relatively lower on the precip side heading into the spring, and we can melt these soils, I will have a good idea on whether or not we will see flooding. But right now, just understand we can see a change rather quickly unfortunately.”

KCII will share flood outlook updates as they are provided.